Ready, aim. (cease) Fire.

l, we're all waiting to see what Tehran will do tomorrow. The missiles are quiet now, according to US President Donald Trump.

Will oil prices continue to rise? Will there be a lingering effect to shipping and logistics? So, here we go with another "wait and see" blog post.

What began as a regional conflict has eyes from around the world eyeing the fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict. The United States has labeled the conflict the "Twelve Day War", certainly a reference to the Six Day War, framing the missile attacks between the State of Israel and the Iranian military targets as an actual war, slated to record this in history as an Israeli victory.

Meanwhile, the Chinese response to the trade deal struck with US President Trump the week prior seems to be a story almost swept under the rug, obscured by on the Los Angeles immigration protests and through the missile attacks between the Jewish State and Iran. The only tipoff the public even had that anything was possibly up was Trump's early departure from G7 in Canada.

Trump has an established anti-war policy. However, he does not have an anti-conflict policy, as when in "Trump 1" he seized the opportunity to eliminate Iranian general Qasem Soleimani when the circumstances arose to deal him the chance.

China predictably showed worry about regional escalation and called for peace, at least publicly, as did Russia. It must be noted that China is also the top oil trader with China, with upwards of 90% of Iranian oil exports going to China.

Iran is a planned economy featuring one significant product governed by a theocracy. China is a semi-planned economy with a wider breath of economic options and is a key player in the oil market-both in terms of crude as well as the cascading impact in global shipping. China's state carrier and one of the largest ocean freight container lines in the world, Orient Overseas Container Line ("OOCL") saw record growth in 2024 despite the balance of trade with the US drawing closer to equilibrium. China is likely interested in not disrupting their current uptrend in logistics by backing a conflict where Iran can only attack by proxy or make the pain felt by restricting the oil supply. And worldwide traders prepare for rake hikes, as they did in 2021 and 2024 with shipping disruptions due to the Ever Given running aground, the Red Sea Attacks, and uncertainty around the operation of the Panama Canal.

Oil prices already sunk though after the news of the Iranian attacks on US military assets in Qatar, and Trump has publicly expressed the world's energy market should do what it can to keep energy prices down. So far this seems to be the case, although this is way too early to bank. This certainly is meant to offset any restriction on oil markets that Iran may try impose, either by cutting off the market from their oil or by stoking the flames of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, the key shipping lane in the Persian Gulf.

Trump and China almost certainly want to keep the conflict contained, if not squelching it entirely. Neither country can really sustain an economic downswing, even in the short term-although China may not be as susceptible as we may think, since they purchase so much oil. This is more of a market control tactic though. Even US analysts say that China will not deploy their navy to the region, relegating their strategy to quiet negotiations and self-interests, rather than expanding their own role as a peacekeeper.

The messaging appears to be working, with carefully crafted sentiments coming from the Trump Administration pushing the stock markets back on an upward trend. And we can certainly speculate that all interested parties, Eastern and Western are looking at the effects of a prolonged conflict, and the world is nowhere near a true easing of tensions. Remember, the Silk Road (and One Belt, One Road Initiative) flows through Afghanistan and Iran to the West. Certainly meant to keep China as a regional player, they also boast strong ties with Saudi Arabia.

China's messaging has been predictable-they've stuck to the message that the US damaged its credibility on the region. With China considered a regional power player, we'd expect Beijing to take a louder stance on peace and stability, which is how Trump may try to play the narrrative into his hands. Even if not completely destroyed, the uranium enrichment processing facilities in Iran are now set back, for at least the period of internal assessment, with the future needs of the program yet to be unpacked. The US knows this is an inflection point, which can quickly uncover the true intentions of the power brokers in the region.

It's TBD on the true impact to global shipping, although it would not come as a surprise if there are breaks in the truce and China digs in, carefully.

How long this truce will last is yet to be seen. The ball is in Tehran's court, and their countermoves will occur covertly.

I guess we'll all just wait and see.